Friday, August 15, 2014

Policy and Politics

Let me start by saying;
If you are not voting for the Green party you should.

There is simply no 2 ways about it. Free trade will kill us. Militaries are planning contingencies for climate change. Conflict is inevitable. If WWII was anything to go by, a boat on the open seas is a target. Most military's now boast submarines because the Germans showed how effective they could be. Free trade is fine while everybody is friendly, it is an experiment that will end in disaster in wartime.

If we put tariffs on importing goods, our wide screen TVs would go up in price, dramatically. Everything would go up in price for a while. Then other countries would put a tariff on importing our goods. But there's a catch, we can do without their goods, if we can make our own. But they cannot do without our minerals. They need us more than we need them. Why have free trade when the common man is being cleaned out.

Collectively the world chants free trade agreements. Privately, they are debasing their currencies. It is a recipe for disaster. We have simply given up trade wars and substituted currency wars. The way this is being fought is by printing money and national debt. At the end of the day whatever country loses will experience inflation of staple items (food), lower wages and higher taxes. Want proof? Just look at Argentina.

If Australia made its own cars, by that I mean a wholly government owned manufacturer then I would buy one rather than a gleaming high performance foreign machine. Why? Because should trade stop we will still be able to make and drive cars.  We would retain skills and the ability to feed ourselves.

We can sell our grains, minerals and meat overseas, but should international trade stop, people here will starve. Our basic staples are now grown overseas. Most products in the freezer section are either direct from overseas or packaged from overseas goods. People do not grasp how long it would take to turn an economy around to be self-sufficient.

We have shipped our skills offshore and there is no plan B.

Take the basis of our day to day lives, petrol.
Around 75% of our oil production was exported in 2012-2013. Since 2010 we have lost nearly 50% of our oil refining capacity. We are down to 4 refineries. Within a decade we will have none.Those remaining companies will decide that the costs are too high they will be closed down. Australia would export all of its oil overseas and have no refining capacity here. In 2012-13 Australia consumed 54,900 ML (megalitres) of petroleum products. Our "Stock on water" is a critical part of the Australian supply chain (1.). So that is, if there was a conflict and shipping lanes were shutdown we would have to rely on domestic stocks.
Australia meets compliance by holding 90 days worth of fuel. Think about it, only 3 months worth. Should there be a crisis don't expect there to be fuel for 3 months though. It is allocated to different departments according to priority.
Add to that, the Big Australia policy (under various names) and we have a problem. England was under rationing for 14 years during WWII. If we want to continue on the present course with fuel, then we should be investing in Thorium nuclear reactors and go electric in a major way.

Solar and wind are great but they have problems with large constant loads.
You cannot move freight interstate on a solar truck. You could with an electric freight train. We need an electric freight rail grid. This is more than just high speed rail, freight has to move and for that you need power. Liquid Fluoride Thorium reactors in a stable geological area are incredibly safe.

It should be funded by export tariffs. If they want to buy our Australian minerals then let them pay for it. If companies say that it is cheaper to do business elsewhere, let them go. The effect would be that our dollar would drop, imports would become more expensive and local industries would rebuild. The current system isn't working for us anyway. What price is being paid for our environment being dug up like a sand pit. What price is being paid for our kids losing the ability to have normal jobs.

This mantra of compete, compete, compete is costing us our quality of life. The mining companies would state that it would cost jobs, perhaps, but they want to bring in cheap foreign labour anyway. When they can't do that, they automate the mines. Seems we are losing mining jobs anyway.

Again, we should use the income from minerals to create a state-owned car company that builds small electric cars for the domestic market only. So our cars wouldn't compete overseas? I don't care, should push come to shove at least I'll be able to buy a green car and my kids will have a job. Australia's green house gas (ghg) emissions would severely drop.

Our current system of doing things is terribly short-sighted.

Democracy needs to be redefined. It is dated. I am not against the election process or the legislating of law. The problem is how policy gets formulated.
A much better approach would be a clone of stackexchange. Any policy should be posted online, people could review it and comment on it. Importantly, you can see their reputation. The comments with the most number of votes should be used to modify the policy. That is democracy. It should be that way with local councils, state and country parliaments.



1. Australian Institute of Petroleum


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