Let's start with a brief review of the energy situation.
World wide peak oil begins 2015 - 2016. The new US Tight Oil Production has delayed it, but the problem still exists. Peak oil means the costs of extracting it start to significantly affect the ability to get to the oil. It will not be a sudden plunge, but rather a gradual bumpy decline.
Fossil fuels
Petrol in Australia is a major problem, Australia keeps a 90 day supply. It relies on the logistics pipeline to keep us going. This is common policy now around the world. But sources are running dry. Australia is outsourcing its oil refining to overseas, by the end of the decade it is estimated that there will be no more refineries in Australia at all.
According to a report by the Global Sustainability Institute, England will be completely reliant on imports of oil, coal and gas within 5 years. England is hoping for a fracking boom and for increased imports from the US. France has less than a year for oil, coal and gas. Germany has less than a year of oil.
No one is stating that a year from now Germany will be out of oil. It will just become reliant on imports. The supply line will keep things humming along. Therein lies the rub. Where does the supply line come from and where does it run through? Firstly, where does it come from? Here courtesy of Wikipedia is the makeup
Notice that over 1/2 of the production is coming from the Middle East. It appears the Middle East is fracturing, and fast. It's driven by ideologies in the Muslim world, Sunni vs Shia. However, this maybe a simplistic view. As usual money trumps religion. The powers in control of Saudi Arabia and Iran will be happy playing chess with the lives of the people. But all out war is unlikely. The increasing power of Iran is recognized by Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have pushed against Iran (in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq) and failed to get leverage.
They used the current instability, as opportunists, but they didn't start it. The problems in the middle east started with climate change. Drought forced the Arab spring, but the management void left by petty dictators is quickly being filled with ideology. But, as often with ideology, different views emerge. These views compete, often violently. That has been seen with the Syrian rebels fighting each other. The Saudis could not pick a winner in that environment without a possible risk to themselves.
If the extremists control the pipelines then the west is at ransom, but the governments of Iran and Saudi Arabia aren't going to let that happen. Because it will mean they lose revenue, and possibly their own heads. So I think it is unlikely that the extremists will ever gain the upper hand. At this time the Saudis have just positioned 30,000 army personnel at the border with Iraq. It is obvious the Saudis are not funding ISIS. We now have Iran, US and Russia sending weapons to Iraq to battle ISIS. However bright their flame went it is about to get snuffed out.
Having a common enemy, in ISIS, may actually bring Iran and the Saudis closer. It will be interesting to see how they reconcile things so that the common people also see a common enemy. A common enemy has been used time and time again throughout history to make people forget their differences. It doesn't bode well for Israel.
We are becoming more and more reliant on a product created in a war zone. Governments need stable supply channels, that is why we are in the Middle East, and why we will go back there. In the future, it may well be that the survival of our modern civilization may be dictated by the requests of those who control the energy pipeline. I won't spell it out, I hope I am wrong.
According to a report by the Global Sustainability Institute, England will be completely reliant on imports of oil, coal and gas within 5 years. England is hoping for a fracking boom and for increased imports from the US. France has less than a year for oil, coal and gas. Germany has less than a year of oil.
No one is stating that a year from now Germany will be out of oil. It will just become reliant on imports. The supply line will keep things humming along. Therein lies the rub. Where does the supply line come from and where does it run through? Firstly, where does it come from? Here courtesy of Wikipedia is the makeup
| Country | Region | Joined OPEC[30] | Population (July 2012)[31] | Area (km²)[32] | Production (bbl/day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ecuador | South America | 2007[A 1] | 15,223,680 | 283,560 | 485,700 (30th) |
 Qatar | Middle East | 1961 | 1,951,591 | 11,437 | 1,213,000 (21st) |
 Angola | Africa | 2007 | 18,056,072 | 1,246,700 | 1,948,000 (17th) |
 Algeria | Africa | 1969 | 37,367,226 | 2,381,740 | 2,125,000 (16th) |
 Libya | Africa | 1962 | 5,613,380 | 1,759,540 | 2,210,000 (15th) |
 Nigeria | Africa | 1971 | 170,123,740 | 923,768 | 2,211,000 (14th) |
 Venezuela | South America | 1960[A 2] | 28,047,938 | 912,050 | 2,472,000 (11th) |
 Kuwait | Middle East | 1960[A 2] | 2,646,314 | 17,820 | 2,494,000 (10th) |
 United Arab Emirates | Middle East | 1967 | 5,314,317 | 83,600 | 2,798,000 (8th) |
 Iraq | Middle East | 1960[A 2] | 31,129,225 | 437,072 | 3,200,000 (12th) |
 Iran | Middle East | 1960[A 2] | 78,868,711 | 1,648,000 | 4,172,000 (4th) |
 Saudi Arabia | Middle East | 1960[A 2] | 26,534,504 | 2,149,690 | 8,800,000 (2nd) |
| Total | 369,368,429 | 11,854,977 km² | 33,327,700 bbl/day | ||
They used the current instability, as opportunists, but they didn't start it. The problems in the middle east started with climate change. Drought forced the Arab spring, but the management void left by petty dictators is quickly being filled with ideology. But, as often with ideology, different views emerge. These views compete, often violently. That has been seen with the Syrian rebels fighting each other. The Saudis could not pick a winner in that environment without a possible risk to themselves.
If the extremists control the pipelines then the west is at ransom, but the governments of Iran and Saudi Arabia aren't going to let that happen. Because it will mean they lose revenue, and possibly their own heads. So I think it is unlikely that the extremists will ever gain the upper hand. At this time the Saudis have just positioned 30,000 army personnel at the border with Iraq. It is obvious the Saudis are not funding ISIS. We now have Iran, US and Russia sending weapons to Iraq to battle ISIS. However bright their flame went it is about to get snuffed out.
Having a common enemy, in ISIS, may actually bring Iran and the Saudis closer. It will be interesting to see how they reconcile things so that the common people also see a common enemy. A common enemy has been used time and time again throughout history to make people forget their differences. It doesn't bode well for Israel.
We are becoming more and more reliant on a product created in a war zone. Governments need stable supply channels, that is why we are in the Middle East, and why we will go back there. In the future, it may well be that the survival of our modern civilization may be dictated by the requests of those who control the energy pipeline. I won't spell it out, I hope I am wrong.
Had we done the Christian act with 9/11, and turned the other cheek, whilst at the same time bolstering defenses, it is a very reasonable assumption that we would not be in this mess. If we were to replace our dependence on fossil fuels, in particular oil, we would take away their power base. If they chose to decimate themselves, then that is their decision, it need not involve the west. Now, the situation is dragging the world into a major conflict on the scale of a world war.
Given the state of the environment, and the situation within the middle east, the only reason the west can possibly be continuing this insanity is the obsession with money. Governments realize the problem but the tragedy of the commons is not factored into the price of our energy. We need to look to achieve energy independence through other means.
Supply lines
At present it is difficult to imagine a supply line without diesel. This is because there simply is not the infrastructure to supply electricity at the demand level that logistics requires. The longer we do not address this fundamental problem, the greater the problems of the middle east will become. The more ghg we produce the more droughts there will be and the more extreme the political forces that come into power.
As has been seen in Afghanistan supply routes are fickle things. It would be accurately argued that Pakistan and Afghanistan are not representative of world trade routes. I am just using them as an example of what it can be like in a conflict area. Humanity has a history of instability. Right now we have some dangerous squabbling going on between powerful neighbors. During wartime sea routes are adversely affected, any blip in the supply line would have major repercussions.
Here's an example;
"Gas futures climbed by up to 10% in early trading, while the benchmark price for oil rose by more than 2%.
Traders are worried about the stability of supplies from Russia, which provides a quarter of Europe's natural gas, half of it through Ukraine."
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26418664
As has been seen in Afghanistan supply routes are fickle things. It would be accurately argued that Pakistan and Afghanistan are not representative of world trade routes. I am just using them as an example of what it can be like in a conflict area. Humanity has a history of instability. Right now we have some dangerous squabbling going on between powerful neighbors. During wartime sea routes are adversely affected, any blip in the supply line would have major repercussions.
Here's an example;
"Gas futures climbed by up to 10% in early trading, while the benchmark price for oil rose by more than 2%.
Traders are worried about the stability of supplies from Russia, which provides a quarter of Europe's natural gas, half of it through Ukraine."
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26418664
10% jump because they were worried about a quarter of the supply.
There is a bright side, we don't have to worry about being invaded. They could just turn off the spigot wait a while and arrive to a red carpet reception.
We need to plan on fuel shortages, there is simply a lack of international foresight on the issue. That means, until alternate sources are established, you will need a way to store fuel. Another option is to ensure that you are self-sufficient for long enough for other fossil fuel supply chains to be established. How long would that take? That would depend on the circumstances, but after a disruption, it would almost be certain that fuel prices would drop, but never return to normal.Power outages and heat events
There will be a significant heat event coupled with power outages, and there will be spikes in oil prices. At that time all the arguments against Hydrogen production or Thorium nuclear reactors should be forgotten. They should be building them as fast as they can, particularly in a stable geological area like Australia. The problem is that they probably won't. Public ignorance against Thorium and Hydrogen, and political shortsightedness, will mean we continue to rely on coal. This will further exacerbate the environmental problem and we will continue to send our children to fight in useless conflictsThe variability of wind, solar and wave generators make stabilizing an electrical network difficult. Biogas is a great option that simply does not get mentioned enough. However, the scale of the requirement for an electrical grid capable of moving freight, is in excess of anything that traditional renewable sources can generate. Thorium is a safe alternative however, people are focused on disasters that were caused by outdated sources and technologies. Hydrogen is another option that needs more research.
Currently we have done little that will make a significant difference. So now, the trick is going to be to survive the heat events. As society's systems breakdown, one can make the assumption that being located near a power plant is essential. That is because economic centers will have a chance of rebuilding past the initial panic, if they are located close to a power source.
Remote communities will have a very difficult time. So people will rush to the locations that have power. It is easy to imagine a day when malls charge for entry, and when they are expanded to offer apartments at premium rental rates.
Cities will survive in some form. The wealthy will buy the power that will allow them to dig down to escape the heat. They will get their way regardless of the price. By having robust power supply to the cities will mean that city space will be at a premium and so not be the best place to grow food. Anything external to the city will be hostile, so food prices will go through the roof.
Cities will survive in some form. The wealthy will buy the power that will allow them to dig down to escape the heat. They will get their way regardless of the price. By having robust power supply to the cities will mean that city space will be at a premium and so not be the best place to grow food. Anything external to the city will be hostile, so food prices will go through the roof.
Anybody who is capable of existing outside the urban centers, but producing food for them, will be successful. The use of the word successful is to mean the community will flourish. The predominant trend here is indoor farming, there are a lot of innovations going on. There is however a drawback, they require electrical power.
Making your own energy through;
Biogas
Hydrogen
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