Saturday, March 22, 2014

Inflation

As reported here, the main inflation pressure I see is food, but there is also energy and insurance. 

Inflation is here, but it is being hidden. Some analysts call it “shrinkflation.” And, it refers to the downsizing of consumer goods. The amount of product you purchase is getting smaller, but the price you pay stays the same. (more)
More and more hiding of facts is going on but sooner or later it will break out. The impact of rising inflation with artificial interest rates would be unprecedented. That at a time when the US unfunded liabilities are just beginning to get traction. At least in the US it seems to be shaping up to be the perfect financial storm. Decreasing asset values (as retirees sell up), increasing costs and huge debt. The Debt is the big problem. 

Piece by piece the US dollar is being removed as the default international currency. This is being done through currency swap agreements between China and a growing number of other countries. If the US dollar was to be removed the impact would be severe, particularly for inflation within the US as the cost of importing goods and services would go up dramatically. Gold is priced in US dollars, so when you see the price of Gold going up, take a moment to consider what side of the US border you are on.

Not all of this is climate change related, however, it is still a pressure going forward. 
So here are some examples:

  • US Pigs - Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea - as I write pork prices are down because everyone is stocking supplies. That is because a new virus is hitting pigs and has killed 4 million since May 2013. Unfortunately, it kills babies older pigs fair better.
  • US beef - Reuters reports the US herd to be the lowest in 63 years at 87.730 million head.
  • Australian Lambs - Drought - I was speaking with someone the other day who said you could buy a live lamb for $2. That is because the farmers cannot afford to feed them.
  • Californian Fruit and Nuts - Drought. In their infinite wisdom many people are suggesting that Californian farmers only contribute 3% to the Californian GDP and so they are dispensable. While true from an accounting perspective, it is not true from a survival perspective. Californian farmers provide about 1/2 the fruit and nut demands of the US.
  • Bees - Colony Collapse Disorder - They still have not found the source. Bees pollinate plants and we eat the fruit. Lose the bees and you need to hand pollinate.
  • Chickens get killed by the millions to eradicate viruses (H5N1, H9N7). They also are very susceptible to heat stress. The cost of keeping chickens is going to increase with the power requirements to cool them.
  • Turkey is in drought.
  • China is recovering from drought
  • Australia is still in drought

Compounding this is an increasing appetite from Asia for red meat.
We are not realistically pricing our food. Society has grown up in an age of plenty due to an age of environmental stability. Take the stability factor out and we will see food dramatically increase in price.

OK, enough of that there are plenty of resources on the net that can elaborate on these topics more than I can.

No comments:

Post a Comment